ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) DCF Valuation
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ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) Bundle
Enhance your investment strategies with the ZTO DCF Calculator! Explore real financial data for ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc., adjust growth projections and expenses, and instantly observe how these modifications affect ZTO's intrinsic value.
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) - (USD MM)
| Year | AY1 2019 |
AY2 2020 |
AY3 2021 |
AY4 2022 |
AY5 2023 |
FY1 2024 |
FY2 2025 |
FY3 2026 |
FY4 2027 |
FY5 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3,029.3 | 3,454.6 | 4,165.9 | 4,847.0 | 5,263.7 | 6,047.7 | 6,948.5 | 7,983.5 | 9,172.6 | 10,538.8 |
| Revenue Growth, % | 0 | 14.04 | 20.59 | 16.35 | 8.6 | 14.89 | 14.89 | 14.89 | 14.89 | 14.89 |
| EBITDA | 921.7 | 712.0 | 803.8 | 1,527.3 | 1,898.0 | 1,668.0 | 1,916.5 | 2,201.9 | 2,529.9 | 2,906.7 |
| EBITDA, % | 30.43 | 20.61 | 19.3 | 31.51 | 36.06 | 27.58 | 27.58 | 27.58 | 27.58 | 27.58 |
| Depreciation | 173.3 | 252.2 | 304.4 | 365.9 | 393.9 | 427.7 | 491.4 | 564.6 | 648.7 | 745.3 |
| Depreciation, % | 5.72 | 7.3 | 7.31 | 7.55 | 7.48 | 7.07 | 7.07 | 7.07 | 7.07 | 7.07 |
| EBIT | 748.5 | 459.9 | 499.4 | 1,161.4 | 1,504.1 | 1,240.3 | 1,425.1 | 1,637.3 | 1,881.2 | 2,161.4 |
| EBIT, % | 24.71 | 13.31 | 11.99 | 23.96 | 28.58 | 20.51 | 20.51 | 20.51 | 20.51 | 20.51 |
| Total Cash | 2,244.7 | 2,452.9 | 1,721.7 | 2,390.3 | 2,725.5 | 3,477.8 | 3,995.8 | 4,590.9 | 5,274.7 | 6,060.4 |
| Total Cash, percent | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 |
| Account Receivables | 95.3 | 104.3 | 133.8 | 116.2 | 79.1 | 160.6 | 184.5 | 212.0 | 243.6 | 279.9 |
| Account Receivables, % | 3.15 | 3.02 | 3.21 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 2.66 | 2.66 | 2.66 | 2.66 | 2.66 |
| Inventories | 6.0 | 7.3 | 11.4 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 10.5 | 12.1 | 13.9 | 15.9 | 18.3 |
| Inventories, % | 0.1983 | 0.21048 | 0.27285 | 0.11459 | 0.07307338 | 0.17386 | 0.17386 | 0.17386 | 0.17386 | 0.17386 |
| Accounts Payable | 202.1 | 224.1 | 268.2 | 301.8 | 350.3 | 392.9 | 451.4 | 518.6 | 595.9 | 684.6 |
| Accounts Payable, % | 6.67 | 6.49 | 6.44 | 6.23 | 6.66 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 |
| Capital Expenditure | -716.1 | -1,261.6 | -1,278.0 | -1,015.6 | -913.8 | -1,562.1 | -1,794.8 | -2,062.1 | -2,369.3 | -2,722.1 |
| Capital Expenditure, % | -23.64 | -36.52 | -30.68 | -20.95 | -17.36 | -25.83 | -25.83 | -25.83 | -25.83 | -25.83 |
| Tax Rate, % | 18.18 | 18.18 | 18.18 | 18.18 | 18.18 | 18.18 | 18.18 | 18.18 | 18.18 | 18.18 |
| EBITAT | 628.5 | 393.9 | 413.8 | 954.3 | 1,230.7 | 1,033.1 | 1,187.0 | 1,363.8 | 1,566.9 | 1,800.3 |
| Depreciation | ||||||||||
| Changes in Account Receivables | ||||||||||
| Changes in Inventories | ||||||||||
| Changes in Accounts Payable | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | ||||||||||
| UFCF | 186.5 | -603.7 | -549.4 | 361.6 | 798.2 | -147.0 | -83.4 | -95.8 | -110.1 | -126.5 |
| WACC, % | 5.21 | 5.21 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 |
| PV UFCF | ||||||||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -485.5 | |||||||||
| Long Term Growth Rate, % | 2.00 | |||||||||
| Free cash flow (T + 1) | -129 | |||||||||
| Terminal Value | -4,029 | |||||||||
| Present Terminal Value | -3,126 | |||||||||
| Enterprise Value | -3,612 | |||||||||
| Net Debt | 425 | |||||||||
| Equity Value | -4,037 | |||||||||
| Diluted Shares Outstanding, MM | 839 | |||||||||
| Equity Value Per Share | -4.81 |
What You Will Get
- Real ZTO Financial Data: Pre-filled with ZTO Express's historical and projected data for precise analysis.
- Fully Editable Template: Modify key inputs like revenue growth, WACC, and EBITDA % with ease.
- Automatic Calculations: See ZTO's intrinsic value update instantly based on your changes.
- Professional Valuation Tool: Designed for investors, analysts, and consultants seeking accurate DCF results.
- User-Friendly Design: Simple structure and clear instructions for all experience levels.
Key Features
- Accurate ZTO Financials: Gain access to reliable pre-loaded historical data and forward-looking projections.
- Adjustable Forecast Inputs: Modify highlighted cells for key metrics like WACC, growth rates, and profit margins.
- Real-Time Calculations: Automatic updates for DCF, Net Present Value (NPV), and cash flow evaluations.
- Interactive Dashboard: User-friendly charts and summaries to help visualize your valuation outcomes.
- Designed for All Levels: An intuitive layout tailored for investors, CFOs, and consultants alike.
How It Works
- 1. Download the Template: Obtain and open the Excel file featuring ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.'s preloaded data.
- 2. Modify Assumptions: Adjust essential inputs such as growth rates, WACC, and capital expenditures.
- 3. Analyze Results Immediately: The DCF model automatically computes intrinsic value and NPV.
- 4. Experiment with Scenarios: Evaluate various forecasts to explore different valuation results.
- 5. Present with Assurance: Deliver professional valuation insights to enhance your decision-making.
Why Choose This Calculator for ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO)?
- User-Friendly Interface: Perfect for both novices and seasoned professionals.
- Customizable Inputs: Adjust parameters effortlessly to suit your analysis.
- Real-Time Adjustments: Witness immediate updates to ZTO’s valuation as you change inputs.
- Preloaded Data: Comes with ZTO’s actual financial metrics for swift evaluations.
- Relied Upon by Experts: Utilized by investors and analysts for sound decision-making.
Who Should Use ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO)?
- Logistics Professionals: Develop comprehensive and accurate logistics models for operational analysis.
- Supply Chain Analysts: Evaluate delivery scenarios to optimize internal processes.
- Consultants and Advisors: Offer clients precise insights into the valuation of ZTO stock.
- Students and Educators: Utilize real-world logistics data to study and teach supply chain management.
- Industry Enthusiasts: Gain insights into how logistics companies like ZTO are valued in the market.
What the Template Contains
- Operating and Balance Sheet Data: Pre-filled ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) historical data and forecasts, including revenue, EBITDA, EBIT, and capital expenditures.
- WACC Calculation: A dedicated sheet for Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC), including parameters like Beta, risk-free rate, and share price.
- DCF Valuation (Unlevered and Levered): Editable Discounted Cash Flow models showing intrinsic value with detailed calculations.
- Financial Statements: Pre-loaded financial statements (annual and quarterly) to support analysis.
- Key Ratios: Includes profitability, leverage, and efficiency ratios for ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO).
- Dashboard and Charts: Visual summary of valuation outputs and assumptions to analyze results easily.